Land & Real Estate Value Uplift and Investment Attraction Report

In waterfront projects, the impact typically extends beyond the site boundaries. "Place value" improves when public space becomes functional and usable, and when the waterfront transforms into a permanent destination for visits and spending. In this case, two concurrent effects emerge:

1. Increase in real estate value of surrounding land and assets.
2. Catalyzing new private investment or accelerating development of previously deferred land.

This report measures the impact of Zan Waterfront project on its surroundings within a defined impact radius, using a conservative and auditable methodology.

• Real estate value uplift within 2,400m: Approximately SAR 505 million expected value increase for tradable land and assets, at a weighted average of approximately 8.4%.
• Catalyzed private investment over 10 years: Approximately SAR 635 million (additional or accelerated investment resulting from enhanced attractiveness and reduced risk).
• Realistic sensitivity range for presentation and governance:
  • Value uplift: SAR 197 to 791 million
  • Catalyzed investment: SAR 217 million to 1.36 billion

Estimating the impact of Zan Waterfront project on surrounding real estate value and investment, converting it into auditable figures to support marketing narrative, governance, and stakeholder communication without exaggeration.

Spatial Measurement Scope

Two radii around the project boundaries were adopted to spatially define the impact in a logical and interpretable manner:

• Near radius: Up to approximately 15-minute walk (1,200m) from project boundaries.
• Extended radius: From 1,200m to 2,400m from project boundaries, representing a wider impact spread but with a lower premium.

Temporal Measurement Scope

• Value Uplift: A price effect that appears gradually as the product becomes clear and operations stabilize.
• Catalyzed Private Investment: Measured over 10 years as private development around destinations requires decision, financing, and execution cycles.

Important Boundaries Before Reading the Numbers

• This report is an estimate for presentation and governance purposes, not an official asset valuation.
• "Tradable value" within impact zones was calculated using a marketable area factor, as the zone area includes roads, services, public amenities, and non-tradable portions.
• The model does not assume all land will develop; it uses a conservative activation rate for undeveloped land over 10 years.

Population Logic at Housing Completion

The same logic adopted in other impact reports was used:

• Average population per built plot = Current population ÷ Number of plots with buildings
• Population at area completion ≈ Average population per built plot × Total number of plots

Impact Zone Summary (as provided from project data)

Important interpretive note: The presence of 4,713 undeveloped plots within 2,400m means the market around the project has significant development fuel, enhancing the ability to convert value uplift into actual development and investment rather than just theoretical price increases.

Economic and urban literature explains Uplift through three main pathways:

1. Amenity Value: Proximity to high-quality public space creates a price premium. Crompton suggests that a positive impact of 20% on property values adjacent to or overlooking public space can be considered a reasonable starting point for estimation, with the percentage varying by context.
2. Public space quality actually affects prices: The Paved with Gold report links improved street design quality to housing price increases of approximately 5.2% and retail rent increases of approximately 4.9% in studied cases.
3. The impact extends inland over time (Ripple Effect): Waterfront studies indicate that the impact is strongest near the waterfront, then diminishes with distance, and continues to expand inland over time.

Accordingly, adopting 1,200m as a direct impact radius and 2,400m as an extended radius is a logical simplification consistent with the concept of diminishing impact with distance, while keeping the model conservative in uplift percentages.

Price references were based on indicators from internal project files, including clear benchmarks such as:

• Raw commercial land in second and third rows reaching SAR 2,000/sqm.
• First-row seafront land between SAR 2,600 to 3,000/sqm.
• Post-development sale range between SAR 2,500 to 3,500/sqm.

Since the 1,200m to 2,400m zone is not entirely first-row or commercial, weighted and conservative baseline prices were adopted reflecting the mix of uses:

• 0 to 1,200m: SAR 1,600/sqm
• 1,200m to 2,400m: SAR 1,200/sqm

1) Marketable Area Factor

• Marketable Area Factor (default): 20% of the zone area in the base case.
• Sensitivity range for testing: 15% to 22%.

2) Uplift Rates by Distance

• 0 to 1,200m: 12%
• 1,200m to 2,400m: 6%

Base Case Assumptions

• Marketable area factor: 20%
• Baseline price: 1,600 (0 to 1,200m) and 1,200 (1,200m to 2,400m)
• Uplift: 12% and 6%

Numerical Results

Base case result: Expected value uplift for tradable land and assets within 2,400m equals approximately SAR 505 million at a weighted average of approximately 8.4%.

This indicator does not measure asset value, but rather the volume of new or accelerated investment that occurs because the project enhances location attractiveness and reduces site risk, thereby accelerating development decisions.

Model Logic

• Within 2,400m there are 4,713 undeveloped plots available for development.
• We assume the project catalyzes development of 4% of them over 10 years.
• Result: Approximately 189 plots.

Construction Cost Used

Internal project documents include additions of:

• Soft Cost = 10%
• Contingency = 10%

They also include direct construction cost examples (SAR/sqm) such as:

• Residential: 2,900
• Retail: 3,313 with another assumption Retail: 4,000

Therefore, an all-inclusive cost including 20% (Soft + Cont.) was adopted: SAR 4,200/sqm.

Base Case Calculation

• Activated plots: 189
• Development yield: 800 sqm GFA per plot
• Additional GFA: 151,200 sqm
• All-inclusive cost: SAR 4,200/sqm
• Catalyzed investment: SAR 635 million

To solidify the impact instead of relying solely on a model, pre-and-post measurement can be conducted using official transaction data:

• Real Estate Indicators Platform of the Real Estate General Authority (REGA) as a monitoring source for indicators.
• General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT) methodologies for the real estate price index based on registry transaction data.

Proposed procedure:

1. Extract transactions (SAR/sqm) within 0 to 1,200m and 1,200m to 2,400m ranges for 12 months before operation and 12 to 24 months after stabilization.
2. Select control areas within Jazan outside the waterfront's influence for comparison.
3. Separate analysis by asset type (land, apartments, villas, commercial) as uplift sensitivity varies.

The value uplift and investment impact around Zan Waterfront appears through two complementary pathways:

• Expected uplift in tradable asset value within 2,400m of approximately SAR 505 million in the base case.
• Catalyzed private investment of approximately SAR 635 million over 10 years through accelerating development of a portion of undeveloped land around the site.

The presence of 4,713 undeveloped plots within 2,400m enhances the ability to convert this impact into actual development and investment, within a conservative model that is measurable and trackable.

1. Crompton, John L. The impact of parks on property values: empirical evidence from the past two decades in the United States. Managing Leisure. 2005. lecy.github.io
2. CABE and Design Council. Paved with gold: the real value of good street design. designcouncil.org.uk
3. Oliva, Simeon. The effects of waterfront development on housing prices: the case of eastern Baltimore. University of Maryland (DRUM repository). 2006. drum.lib.umd.edu
4. Real Estate Indicators Platform. Real Estate General Authority (REGA). Accessed 2026. rega.gov.sa
5. Methodology and Quality Report of Real Estate Price Index Statistics. General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). 22/10/2024. stats.gov.sa
6. Land Valuation Justification Memo. ZAN. 2025. Internal.
7. Development Recommendations and Financial Assessment (Option 1). ZAN. 2025. Internal.
8. Residential Market Assessment and Retail Market Assessment. ZAN. 2025. Internal.