Year-Round Tourism & Visitation Impact Model for Zan Waterfront in Jazan

The strength of successful tourism destinations is measured by their ability to generate sustained demand year-round, then manage this demand seasonally in a way that maximizes utilization without straining operations. In Jazan, where climate significantly impacts outdoor activities, understanding seasonality and visit source distribution becomes an essential part of operational and marketing planning.

This report converts the impact of the Zan Waterfront project into measurable operational indicators, taking into account Jazan's strong seasonality and adopting realistic demand segmentation based on population proximity to the site.

Update: Demand segmentation by 15-minute walk radius (1,200m) and 2,400m radius without changing total visits.

• Total Annual Destination Visits: Approximately 7.12 million visits/year within a realistic range of 6.0 to 8.7 million.
• Overnight Stays within the Project: 98,733 room nights annually, equivalent to 191,826 person-nights annually.
• On-site Spending: Approximately SAR 872.9 million/year.
• Visit Segmentation at Build-out:
  • Residents within 15-minute walk (1,200m): 0.76 to 1.53 million visits/year (base 1.15 million).
  • Residents 1,200m to 2,400m: 0.58 to 1.16 million visits/year (base 0.87 million).
  • Rest of Jazan, region, and tourists: 4.43 to 5.77 million visits/year (base 5.10 million).
• Key Finding: Even after build-out of nearby housing, 62% to 81% of visits come from beyond 2.4 km, supporting the project's narrative as a regional destination, not just a local service.

Measuring tourism and visit impact by converting program and financial model data into four key indicators:

1. Total annual destination visits.
2. Additional overnight stays (Room Nights and Person-Nights).
3. On-site spending (SAR annually).
4. Winter peak versus annual average.

• Study Scope: A stable operating year after project completion and stabilization of occupancy and operations.
• Measurement Scope: Visitor economy within the destination, not all their spending in Jazan outside the site.
• Important Definitions:
  • Annual visits represent the number of visits, not unique visitors, as one person may visit multiple times.
  • Visit segmentation by proximity zones is an operational tool for interpreting demand sources and does not change the total.

Seasonality logic in Jazan is confirmed by two independent sources:

• The mildest period in Jazan extends approximately from December 9 to March 9 according to WeatherSpark, supporting increased demand for marine and outdoor activities during this window.
• Saudipedia indicates that January is the peak tourism season in Jazan due to moderate weather and the coincidence of several festivals including the Jazan Winter Festival.

Based on this, the annual operating strategy reads as follows:

• Winter: Outdoor events, higher attendance, and easier travel decisions.
• Summer: Clear shift to evening economy and indoor activities such as shopping, enclosed experiences, and restaurants.

1) Project Accommodation (Project Program)

• Hotel (4-star): 230 rooms, occupancy 70%, ADR = SAR 548.
• Resort (5-star): 150 rooms, occupancy 73%, ADR = SAR 897.

Market Anchor for Assumption Justification: At the national level in Q1 2025:

• Hotel occupancy: approximately 63%
• Average hotel ADR: approximately SAR 477
• Average hotel length of stay: approximately 4.1 nights

Therefore, assuming 70% to 73% occupancy for a prime waterfront product remains defensible as an operating target above the national average.

2) Trip Behavior and Spending Anchor

From the Hospitality Investor report by the Ministry of Tourism (November 2024):

• Average length of stay: 15.8 nights for international visitors, 6.1 nights for domestic.
• Average spending per trip: SAR 5,150 for international, SAR 1,397 for domestic.

These figures are used as anchors to understand trip spending levels versus on-site visit spending.

3) Tourism Demand Context in Jazan

Saudipedia reports for 2019 in Jazan:

• Tourism spending exceeding SAR 2.8 billion.
• 63 hotels with 2,891 rooms at an average occupancy of 56%.

This demonstrates that the project builds on an existing market and adds a quality destination product that enhances attraction and repeat visitation.

1) Accommodation Unit: Overnight Stays

a) Annual Room Nights Sold

b) Person-Nights

c) Estimated Accommodation Guests (Approximate)

• Hotel ALOS = 3.2 nights
• Resort ALOS = 3.8 nights
• Result: Approximately 55,000 guests/year in accommodation facilities.

2) Visitor Spending Unit within the Destination

• Total on-site spending at stabilization: SAR 872.9 million/year
• Non-Accommodation Sales (Retail + F&B + Events): SAR 769 million/year

3) Converting Spending to Annual Visits (Footfall)

Conversion inputs (Base Case):

• Non-Accommodation Sales = SAR 769 million/year
• Average spending per spending visit = SAR 180/visit
• Conversion rate = 60%

Equations:

• Spending Visits = 769m ÷ 180 = 4.27 million spending visits/year
• Total Visits = 4.27m ÷ 60% = 7.12 million visits/year

• SAR 200 spending and 65% conversion yields approximately 5.9 million visits/year
• SAR 160 spending and 55% conversion yields approximately 8.7 million visits/year

Therefore, the confidently presentable figure: 7.12 million visits/year within a range of 6.0 to 8.7 million.

Zone Data

Segment Definitions

• Segment A: Residents within 15-minute walk (1,200m)
• Segment B: Residents 1,200m to 2,400m
• Segment C: Rest of Jazan, region, and tourists

Visit Rate Assumptions per Person

• Segment A: 30 to 60 visits/person/year (base 45)
• Segment B: 12 to 24 visits/person/year (base 18)

Results at Build-out

Current Situation Before Surrounding Development Completion

Brief Interpretive Reading

If the 2.4 km zone alone were relied upon to reach 7.12 million, approximately 96 visits per person per year would be required. This is unrealistic as a sole source, confirming that the project depends on visitors from the rest of Jazan, the region, and tourists. Additionally, accommodation alone does not explain the visit volume, as the bulk of visits comes primarily from day visitors and city/regional residents.

• Monthly average: 7.12 million ÷ 12 ≈ 0.59 million visits/month
• January peak: ≈ 0.83 million visits/month (approximately +40% above average)
• Lowest summer months (July & August): ≈ 0.46 million visits/month (approximately -23% below average)
• December to March share: ≈ 42% of annual visits

The model demonstrates that the Zan Waterfront operates as a destination with high annual demand, balancing frequent local demand near the site with regional and tourism demand that constitutes the largest share of visits. Jazan's seasonality also elevates the importance of winter operations for events and outdoor activities, versus strengthening indoor activities and the evening economy in summer.

1. Average Weather in Jizan, Saudi Arabia – Year Round. WeatherSpark. Accessed 2026. weatherspark.com
2. Tourism in Jazan Province. Saudipedia. 10/10/2025. saudipedia.com
3. Tourism Establishments Statistics – Q1 of 2025. General Authority for Statistics (GASTAT). 2025. stats.gov.sa
4. Hospitality Investor. Ministry of Tourism (Saudi Arabia). Nov 2024. mt.gov.sa
5. ZAN Project Program + ZAN Financial Model (Internal). ZAN. 2026. Internal.